GLP-1 Market: Are there Still New Horizons for Growth?
GLP-1 Market: Are there Still New Horizons for Growth?
In recent years, GLP-1 receptor agonists have emerged as a revolutionary class of drugs for blood sugar control and weight management. Unlike other diabetes therapies, GLP-1 receptor demonstrates enhanced efficacy in reducing HbA1c levels and body weight. At the same time, it has been proven to offer cardiovascular benefits and better safety, overcoming some of the shortcomings of traditional therapies.
This, combined with the rising prevalence of diabetes and evolving treatment needs in metabolic diseases, makes them a growing field of interest. Figures reported by Research and Markets support this, projecting the potential market size for GLP-1 receptor agonists to reach US$173.62 billion by 2030. This translates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.65% from 2024 to 2030.
For companies looking to tap into the potential of GLP-1 receptor agonists, Asian markets like China present attractive opportunities.
Demand for GLP-1 Receptor Agonists in China
Global Diabetic Population (Source: International Diabetes Federation)
Based on data released by the Chinese government, 141 million Chinese suffer from diabetes, with the figure expected to increase to 174.4 million in 2045. This makes China the country with the greatest number of diabetic individuals worldwide and one of the biggest target markets for GLP-1 applications.
Given that the wild card in healthcare is the extent to which a drug can benefit other therapeutic areas, China further stands out for the high prevalence of conditions beyond diabetes that GLP-1 drugs can treat. For instance, the figures published in a report by the National Health Commission revealed that:
- Over 50% of China’s adult population is overweight or obese.
- Some studies predict that by 2030, the rate of overweight and obesity among Chinese adults could reach 65.3%.
- The associated medical costs from overweight and obesity are estimated to be RMB 418 billion.
- This is about 21.5% of the nation’s total healthcare expenditure.
While lifestyle interventions are often the first choice for treating overweight or obese patients, poor efficacy and difficulty in patient adherence are common issues. Meanwhile, only 0.013% of obese patients undergo surgery. Against this backdrop, weight loss medications play a crucial role in long-term weight management.
Changing aesthetic standards and heightened focus on body image are contributing to greater consumer interest, particularly among those looking to maintain a good body shape. However, the traditional approach to weight loss, which involves careful dietary control and exercise, can be challenging to adopt for office workers, especially in the Chinese known for its long working hours. As a result, weight loss drugs that enable individuals to shed pounds quickly, painlessly, and without adverse health effects are likely to generate strong consumer demand.
These factors, combined with the continuous rise in diabetes and obesity rates and the anticipated economic burden of such conditions, are expected to drive up the demand for relevant treatments or prevention methods. This is already observed with GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, which have already generated significant investor interest and are growing in popularity.
GLP-1 Drugs’ Market Share Breakdown
In China, GLP-1 drugs are currently offered as an option under dual therapy.
Like the international market, GLP-1 drug pipelines from leading global pharmaceutical giants like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are also among the top options in the Chinese market. An analysis of the market share for various GLP-1 drugs targeting diabetes revealed a significant in sales revenue for Semaglutide (from 2022 to 2023) and Dulaglutide (from 2021 to 2023).
GLP-1 Diabetes Drugs Sales Revenue in China (Source: Menet)
Meanwhile, figures from 2023 show that slightly more than half (57%) of the GLP-1 diabetes drugs in the market are Semaglutide.
2023 GLP-1 Diabetes Drug Market Share Breakdown China
i. Main Single-Target GLP-1 Innovative Drug Pipelines
As of November 11, 2024, data shows that China has approximately 13 main single-target GLP-1 innovative drug pipelines focused on weight loss and around 22 dedicated to type II diabetes.
Single-Target Weight Loss Drugs: Marketed = 2; IND = 1; Phase III = 4; Phase II = 4; Phase 1 = 2
Single-Target Diabetes Drugs: Marketed = 10; IND/Applied for Listing = 2; Phase III = 6; Phase II = 2; Phase I = 2
A closer look at the data reveals a relatively saturated market for major single-target drug pipelines. In comparing treatments for type II diabetes and obesity, 78.3% of diabetes drugs are in advanced stages (Phase III or beyond), while only 53.9% of weight loss drugs have reached these later stages.
ii. Main Multi-Target GLP-1 Innovative Drug Pipelines
Similarly, there are currently about 35 main pipelines for multi-target GLP-1 innovative drugs. Among these, 21 are focused on weight loss and 14 on type II diabetes. Unlike the single-target market segment, the multi-target drug market is less saturated. For obesity, only 26.3% of drugs are in advanced development stages, while all 14 diabetes-targeted pipelines remain in the early phases, and the breakdown of their progress is as follows.
Multi-Target GLP-1 Weight Loss Drugs: Applied for Listing = 2; Phase III = 3; Phase II = 6; Phase I = 10
Multi-Target GLP-1 Diabetes Drugs: Phase II = 3; Phase I = 11
iii. Combination and Small Molecule GLP-1 Drugs
The number of main pipelines is even smaller for small-molecule GLP-1 drugs and GLP-1 combination drugs.
For the former, approximately six pipelines target obesity and seven target diabetes, with only one in advanced stages for each indication. Meanwhile, about three main GLP-1 combination drug pipelines focus on obesity and seven on diabetes.
Penetrating China’s GLP-1 Market
The Chinese market for GLP-1 medications is still in relatively early stages compared to Western markets. However, several are expected to hit the market by 2027, which can transform the landscape into a red ocean. Companies that launch first will gain an early foothold, particularly when there is limited production capacity for existing options, which may allow other players to seize market share.
Based on global development trends, GLP-1 drugs are also expected to move towards long-acting and multi-target products. Given this context, other considerations can include:
- Designing multi-target drugs: Multi-target weight loss medications show more significant results than single-target products. A case in point is the dual-target (GIP/GLP-1) agonist Tirzepatide, which outperformed Semaglutide in weight reduction. While single-target drugs have reached the market faster in China due to earlier research, multi-target drugs are expected to have stronger long-term effects and greater market acceptance.
- Combination therapy: The growing demand for healthy, rapid weight loss is pushing towards new research directions like fat reduction and muscle gain. Globally, ACRII inhibitors have shown promise in promoting muscle gain and could potentially be combined with GLP-1
- Oral administration: If safety concerns with small molecule GLP-1 drugs can be addressed, they may complement or become competitors to peptide-based medications.
- Long-acting formulations
- Consumer segmentation: Careful consumer segmentation would be essential for companies targeting the weight loss product market. Weight loss products have strong consumer appeal but also possess characteristics of prescription drugs. As a result, companies need to focus on building recognition with doctors while simultaneously pursuing brand promotion strategies. Sales channels may undergo significant changes, with online pharmacies likely becoming a key marketing focus.
Expand Globally with the Right Support
Beyond developing the right strategy, companies will need the support of talent with the necessary expertise of the local market to penetrate the market effectively, and this is where our team can fill the gap. At JC Consulting, our life sciences recruitment consultants have years of experience helping Fortune 500 companies and startups expand into the Chinese market and connect with the right mid-to-senior-level talent to support their business needs. With executive search firms in Singapore and China—key business hubs in APAC—you can trust that we’re well-positioned to provide the critical regional insights you need and create synergies that support your operational goals.
Connect with us today for our compiled data, deeper discussions about the GLP-1 market or regional biotech and pharmaceutical trends.
*The data above was compiled based on available information as of November 6, 2024. It is not exhaustive and highlights some of the main GLP-1 drug pipelines in the Chinese market.